We Start at the End
Today’s outro track is Blame Canada, by Trey Parker, Primus, Ween and Matt Stone.
“We're not gonna hit 1.5. We're not gonna hit 2.0. We'll probably hit 2.5 to 2.7. And that’s not because I’m a pessimist — it’s because I can do math.”
— Michael Barnard
Welcome back to Wicked Problems. In this episode we talk about climate tech in the age of AI, state failure, and the occasional aircraft powered by poop. In this episode, Canadian climate futurist and returning champion Michael Barnard joins us for a globe-spanning conversation about why he’s still cautiously optimistic — and why, if you’re only paying attention to the U.S. or Europe, you’re probably looking the wrong way.
In Conversation
· Pakistan's rooftop solar revolution: how a glut of Chinese panels and uncoordinated net metering turned into 22 GW of grassroots decarbonization in a single year.
· Ports, poop, and power: what district heating, sewage sludge, and whiz-powered planes tell us about what works — and what’s quietly already scaling.
· China’s decarbonization surprise: Michael walks us through why China’s emissions have actually started to fall, why Western media missed it, and why most U.S. industrial policy is a “radically stupid” own-goal.
· The end of American credibility: on failed trade narratives, disappearing clean energy investment, and the strategic competence of the so-called Global South.
· Three technologies to watch: Geothermal heat-as-a-service, waste-based sustainable aviation fuels, and electrified ports as power utilities of the future.
Timeline
02:28 Optimism in the Face of Climate Challenges
05:08 Pakistan's Energy Transformation
14:16 Leapfrogging in the Global South
21:23 China's Role in Global Emissions Reduction
27:08 The Rise of the Electro State
28:33 China's Dominance in Critical Minerals
29:37 Globalism and Neoliberalism: A Mixed Bag
30:42 The Market Economy's Failures
32:13 Technology Diffusion and Industrial Policy
34:48 The United States' Broken Industrial Policy
43:04 Geothermal Energy Innovations
46:04 Sustainable Aviation Fuel from Waste
49:35 The Future of Electrified Ports
Further Reading
- (BNEF) on Pakistan’s rooftop solar boom
Trifecta Ireland – new NGO for clean, secure, affordable energy
- (Ember) on the rise of the Electrostate v Petrostate
Bottom Line
This is a conversation about agency, not inevitability. About systems, not saviours. Barnard’s realism isn’t about giving up on climate goals — it’s about recognising where the change is really happening, and what gets built when the narrative stops centering Brussels or Washington.
Also: if you don’t want your utility wiped out by 17 GW of solar in six months, maybe design your net metering scheme accordingly.
All the Outros
Thanks
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